My View of the Future of Search

Prediction #1: Searcher Intent Will Not be Judged by Destinations Alone

For the past several years, most of the search industry has held to the belief that Web searchers’ intent can best be determined by the destination of their click. In other words, the theory holds that the best way to determine what a Web user was originally searching for is to examine the site he or she visited after clicking on a link from the search results.

For example, if a person types in “Chicago Bears,” their ‘search intent’ would be determined by the site the searcher chose to visit after considering the various search results suggested. However, the searcher could end up visiting a variety of sites, e.g. the Chicago Bears website to purchase apparel, Ticketmaster.com to buy game tickets or a sports blog with the latest news and updates on the team, etc. As a result, this is not a perfect way to judge the intent, since the exact same search entry can lead to many distinct websites, each fulfilling different objectives. Now, if the searcher conducted a unique search and was led to one unique destination each time, this method has the potential to provide some relevant insight. However, consider the times when the searcher runs only one search query, clicks to visit a site, realizes it isn’t the right one, hits the back button, and clicks on the next link. Using the traditional method of tracking intent, you’d be left with one search query and three possible intentions. Each click would be counted as an intended destination, when in fact the user was only looking to find the final site they visited, (not the first ones they clicked on in error). I have always called this the Homonym Effect of search.

My belief is that, as the search marketplace progresses, search engines and search entities will continue to refine their algorithms in an attempt to produce search results that more accurately reflect searcher intent. Achieving 100% relevance, however, won’t be easy. At Comscore, we have also been working to improve our understanding of searcher intent in ways that consider:

• the destination URL (this is important, but not sufficient on its own)
• all of the sites that a searcher visited long before and long after the actual search being analyzed
• all of the types of individuals that use the defined terms

Prediction #2: Search Will be Used More Widely as a Branding Tool

In the not so distant past, online ad dollars made up a very small share of total ad spend across all media. Content with traditional methods of branding advertising, many marketers were not inspired by the idea of venturing into the digital world. According to Lehman Brothers and Think Equity partners, total U.S. measured media spend in 2008 was $186 billion, of which $118 billion was spent on branding. As a subset of these numbers, U.S. online advertising spend was $26 billion, of which $6 billion was spent on branding advertising. As you can see below, even as recently as 2008, only 5% of all media branding ad dollars were spent online:

However, 2009 is showing us that the search market is one of the most vibrant segments of the online channel. As it continues to grow in volume, and as more and more people use search throughout their day, we are beginning to see investments in search advertising by traditional branding advertisers. Companies that had been basking in the comfort of traditional offline media are now beginning to transfer their branding dollars into the online channel.

A great example of this is Kraftfoods.com. Used almost exclusively as a branding vehicle, Kraftfoods.com saw more than 10 million search clicks in the U.S. during the first half of 2009, 33.4% of which were paid clicks (see below). Visitors to Kraftfoods.com can learn about the latest recipes, promotions, and healthy living suggestions before making a purchase of a Kraft brand at the supermarket.

Prediction #3: Search Will Become Increasingly Important Earlier in the Buying Cycle

Traditionally considered one of the final steps in the consumer purchase process, search is moving up the funnel. We are now seeing search activity taking place much earlier in the consumer buying cycle, even in the beginning stages. The number of total monthly searches conducted per unique searcher grew 25 percent in one year (data from June 2008 to June 2009) bringing the total number of searches to 202 million in June 2009. Whether it is an online purchase or an eventual offline purchase, searchers are becoming increasingly dependent on social media and product reviews to assist them at the onset of shopping. The searches conducted to access these tools are also becoming more specific in describing their needs, with the average search phrase now containing more than 3 words per search query.

This shuffle of the consumer buying cycle means that search marketers must be aware of the need to reach consumers earlier in the process. While it used to be typical for consumers to use search after having established interest in a type of product, buyers are now also using search as they establish interest – one of the first stages of the cycle. Given the boundless amount of information that search allows consumers to access, it no longer makes sense to only deliver search ads to consumers when they are ready to make a purchase. It is much more likely that a purchase decision will be made before arriving at a vendor website. Marketers should adopt new strategies to accommodate this change, and opt to market up the funnel to attract customers.

So, there you have it. Those are my three predictions for the future of the search market. Search has already proved to be a very successful tool for marketers and consumers, and it is still growing at an incredible rate each year. As search technology continues to improve, we can expect that search will become integral for many more web functions. Search allows marketers to reach consumers in ways that are not as easy through other channels. The future of search should see an ability to more accurately decipher searcher intent, followed by a push of marketers’ branding efforts online as a result of the use of search by consumers earlier during their consideration and buying processes.