American Idol Predictions – Final Thoughts

• The Buzz Factor: Search totals can be a good predictor of interest, but analysis of the terms themselves and the buzz associated with each contestant are also important. Adam Lambert is a polarizing media figure, and the analysis of the positive and negative type of terms used by the Searchers tell an interesting story about the psyche of the American Idol audience. With the South traditionally leading the voting in American Idol, the socially conservative/small town element of the audience was heavily involved. Mark Walsh of Mediapost commented on this approach taken by the folks over at OneRiot, who accurately predicted the outcome.
• The Gokey Factor: I’m kicking myself after the fact for not making the connection.....with only 1 million votes separating Kris and Adam towards the end, the Gokey voters would inevitably throw their support behind Kris for the Finale matchup. Again, I bring this back to the similar style of Kris and Danny Gokey vs. Adam Lambert, the agreed upon “patently original” performer for this season’s show, and if there is anything that we know about crowd behavior, they often fall in line with that which is closest and most familiar.
• The Democracy Factor: Okay, so I wasn’t factoring in that voting for American Idol is not exactly a democratic process. Each fan has the ability to phone-in as many votes as they want, and totals can potentially be further manipulated by the use of auto-dialers. I won’t go so far as to say the system is rigged, but it can certainly be influenced in a way that might not reflect the actual sentiment of the voting public.

So, lessons learned for the next time that Comscore lets me be so bold as to prognosticate on the basis of search activity. As Gian Fulgoni said to me the other day, while smiling broadly, “Forecasting is always difficult, but especially when it concerns the future.” ;)